We remain optimistic for a recovery in healthcare services deal activity in 2025 and 2026. In particular, we have been receiving a lot of inbound interest in the home and alternate site infusion space and the behavioral health space. More specifically, in the behavioral health space, we have seen a sharp uptick in consolidation activity among autism therapy providers in recent quarters — with healthy valuation (EBITDA) multiples in the mid-teens.

Key Takeaways

1. In March, President Trump signed a continuing resolution (CR) that funds the federal government through September 2025. The CR extended existing Medicare telehealth flexibilities; however, it did not address the 2.83% Medicare physician pay cut that went into effect in January. Also, the CR did not address the pending expiration of enhanced tax credits for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) health exchanges, which are scheduled to expire at year-end.

2. The CR also did not specifically address Medicaid spending. In February, the House Republicans had passed a budget resolution calling for $880 billion of cuts to the federal budget over the next ten years. It is difficult to see how this could be achieved without major reductions to Medicaid spending. Several obvious targets for savings, in our view, include a Medicaid block grant system, the elimination of federal matching payments for the ACA Medicaid expansion, and the implementation of Medicaid work requirements.

3. Outside of the CR, we expect ongoing unfriendly regulatory actions by Trump towards the ACA exchanges. ACA enrollment reached a record of 24.2 million in the open enrollment period for 2025. Going forward, enrollment will likely be pressured by regulatory actions already taken by the Trump administration, including the elimination of funding for navigators and the shortening of enrollment periods.

In the dynamic consumer health industry, staying ahead of trends is essential for informed decision-making and seizing opportunities. Bourne is active with multiple assignments across consumer health and other coverage areas. Please reach out to us for more information.

For more information on Healthcare Services, reach out to Aaron Olsen or Evan Goldstein.